Join Daniel Freeman in conversation with Professor Sergei Guriev, one of the world’s leading experts on the Russian economy and a man officially designated as a ‘terrorist’ by the Kremlin. From his early days as rector of Moscow’s New Economic School and informal adviser to Dmitri Medvedev, to his current position as a political exile and dean of London Business School, Guriev provides unparalleled insights into Putin’s Russia. This conversation traces his remarkable journey from respected Moscow economist to someone Putin’s regime considers a threat, revealing how Russia’s political transformation fundamentally reshaped economic policy and prosperity.
Guriev explains how the 1990s’ chaotic transition created conditions for Putin’s rise, and why the early Putin years delivered genuine economic growth through market reforms and integration with the West. However, he details how everything changed after Putin’s return to the presidency in 2012, when economic policy became subordinate to political control. The conversation explores how Putin deliberately chose stagnation over growth, preferring a 1970s Soviet-style economy with high oil prices and tight political control rather than the competitive markets that would generate prosperity but also political demands from business elites.
Looking ahead, Guriev outlines potential scenarios for Russia’s future, drawing parallels with the ‘Death of Stalin’ and post-Mao China. He argues that whilst Putin may cling to power until 2035, the regime’s inherent instability means Russia’s political and economic trajectory could shift dramatically once he’s gone. The conversation offers a masterclass in understanding how authoritarian economics works, why Putin fears competition more than stagnation, and what Russia’s future might hold.
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The views represented here are those of the speakers alone, not those of the Institute, its Managing Trustees, Academic Advisory Council members or senior staff.
