YIMBY Rising
Does this week's housing reform announcement mark a real turning point? Plus: Hayek's Nobel Prize, 50 years on.
“In December 2024, the new Housing Secretary announced the first tangible policy changes […]: a reintroduction of mandatory housing targets, and a ramping up of the numbers. […]
The decision […] triggered the usual angry NIMBY backlash, […] [b]ut unlike on previous occasions, in December 2024, […] something else happened alongside: […] For the first time, YIMBYism became an actual electoral force. […] YIMBY-vs-NIMBY became akin to a culture war issue, […] which meant that sitting on the fence was not an option. The government was forced to pick a side”
This is a passage from my IEA Discussion Paper Home Win, published in April this year, in which a narrator from a hypothetical future Britain, in which the housing crisis has been successfully solved, looks back, and tells us how it happened.
It is now December 2024, and so far, actual events track the timeline in Home Win more closely than I would have thought. Housing targets are already back, and in the areas where housing demand is highest, the numbers are being ramped up, according to government plans announced this week. There is more in the pipeline, including measures which those who have read Home Win will recognise.
Sure, the NIMBY backlash has also begun, as it was always going to. But as in Home Win: something seems different this time.
I remember the backlash against Nick Boles’s attempts to shake up the planning system in the early 2010s, and against Robert Jenrick’s attempts to do likewise in 2020/21. The problem back then was not that Boles and Jenrick had lots of enemies. The problem was that they lacked a support base. There was a lot of anger about the housing situation – but it was an unfocussed anger, which did not translate into political support for specific attempts to improve things.
This time around, there just might be a critical mass of people who realise why pro-development reforms are necessary, and desirable. NIMBY opposition can no longer expect to go unchallenged.
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. So far, nothing has been won. This week’s announcements are no more than a first step, and even that step has yet to be taken. There is still every chance that the government will cave in to the NIMBYs, water down its reforms, and end up achieving nothing, like others before them. But until we visibly diverge from the Home Win timeline, I’ll allow myself some restrained optimism.
The IEA is, of course, not just an observer in these debates, but an active participant, and in 2025, I want us to be at its forefront. I want us to be the think tank for the YIMBYs in all parties, and none.
Kristian Niemietz
Editorial Director
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Managing Editor Daniel Freeman, Editorial Director Kristian Niemietz, and Director of Communications Callum Price discuss Rayner's planning reforms, growth and government spending on the IEA Podcast
Hayek’s Nobel 50 Years On
Wednesday 11th December marks 50 years since F.A Hayek won the Nobel prize in economics.
Hayek’s ideas on economic freedom and the dangers of central planning set the intellectual foundation for the 1980s.
Margaret Thatcher herself reportedly slammed The Constitution of Liberty by Hayek on a desk at a Conservative Party meeting, declaring “This is what we believe!”
This Government may not share Thatcher’s admiration for F.A Hayek, but if they are serious about meaningful economic reform, they should listen to what he had to say.
He Warned Us 50 Years Ago, Editorial Director and Head of Political Economy Kristian Niemietz, IEA YouTube
Fifty years on, we need Hayek’s insights more than ever, IEA Editorial Director and Head of Political Economy Kristian Niemietz, CapX
UK back on recession watch in wake of the Budget
Commenting on today's GDP figures showing that UK economy shrunk by 0.1% in October, Julian Jessop, Economics Fellow at the free market think tank the Institute of Economic Affairs, said:
"The second successive monthly fall in economic activity in October should put the UK firmly on recession watch. Indeed, output per head may already be falling for the second quarter in a row.
"The loss of momentum is not contained to the UK. Indeed, the manufacturing sector appears to be struggling even more in the rest of Europe, notably Germany and France.
"Nonetheless, the new government’s negative rhetoric over the summer and the anticipation of a tight Budget have damaged sentiment and encouraged many households and business to put spending, hiring and investment on hold.
"One of the few sectors to do well in October was legal services, suggesting that the Budget was at least good news for tax lawyers.
"The Budget itself was even tougher than expected. The large increases in spending, taxation and borrowing were bound to increase uncertainty. It is simply not possible to shift two per cent of national income from the private to the public sectors without disrupting the economy, especially given the gap in productivity between the two.
"There are some glimmers of light. The latest GfK survey suggests that consumer confidence actually improved in December, with sentiment on the outlook for personal finances turning positive again. Real incomes are still likely to recover further and unemployment is still low.
"But surveys of business confidence suggest that firms remain gloomy, even before the main increases in tax and other costs in the Budget kick in next April.
"The Bank of England's staff forecast of 0.3 per cent growth in the fourth quarter is looking even more optimistic. Zero now seems more realistic. At some point, the Monetary Policy Committee will shift to worrying much more about the downside risks to growth and inflation - perhaps not next week, but soon."
Britain’s economy forecast to flatline after GDP blow, Economics Fellow Julian Jessop quoted in The Telegraph
Kemi Badenoch blasts Labour for 'crashing the economy' as UK goes on recession alert, Economics Fellow Julian Jessop quoted in the Express
REEVE-CESSION: Britain on ‘recession watch’ after economy shrinks for second month in a row, experts warn, Economics Fellow Julian Jessop quoted in The Sun
News, Views & Upcoming Events
900,000 Migrants: Have Free Market Arguments Failed?, IEA Clips
Should all shops have to accept cash?, International Programmes Manager Harrison Griffiths, The Times
Callum Price: No to ‘Thatcher Karaoke’ – Badenoch needs her own tunes but with familiar themes, Director of Communications Callum Price, ConservativeHome
“It’s absolutely a death tax”, Communications Manager Reem Ibrahim on LBC.
On reparations, Jeremy Corbyn is as wrong as ever, Editorial Director Kristian Niemietz, CapX
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