Triumph, turmoil, and the road ahead
And what we'll be up to at Conservative Party Conference!
It shouldn’t be underestimated what a big moment this week was for the Labour Party. It was their first party conference following a historic election victory, just their second from the opposition in the last half-century. They have a thumping majority and the ability to reset Britain’s direction.
The excitement and triumphalism of the newly elected MPs and ministers was palpable in Liverpool. Each time they expressed their joy at being in government it was met with thunderous applause. For these activists, who have weathered numerous disappointments over the past 14 years, power truly is the ultimate aphrodisiac.
But here lies the fundamental challenge for the new government. Labour campaigned on the idea that the Tories were incompetent but also malicious and corrupt. Therefore, now Labour is controlling the levers of state, everything should naturally get better. To give one small example, Secretary of State Liz Kendall declared at a fringe event that I attended that the Tories "didn't care about child poverty."
But, as recent weeks have begun to show, better intentions and new faces around the Cabinet table is nowhere near enough. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has faced one of the shortest electoral honeymoons, with a 45-point drop in approval rating since July. Ministers face accusations of hypocrisy over accepting ‘freebies’ from wealthy donors. Internal divisions are mounting centred on Chief of Staff Sue Gray. The country is no more prosperous or happy than a few months ago. A new dawn has not broken, has it?
Perhaps the new government would be less distracted if it had a more substantial and clearer agenda.
That’s not to say nothing is going on. The government’s rhetoric regarding planning reform could not be more welcome. Starmer has even explicitly acknowledged the trade-offs necessary to boost growth in his party conference speech, like new prisons and electricity pylons near homes. The introduction of ‘planning passports,’ a zonal system that provides automatic approval for high-quality building, could increase certainty, investment and housebuilding if – and a big if – done properly.
All the talk about getting Britain out of the doldrums is appealing, albeit much of the agenda is not. Forthcoming tax increases, including on capital gains and non-doms, risk scaring away investment and entrepreneurs. GB Energy, industrial policy, and more labour market regulation also leave much to be desired. Whether the state's attempts to pick winners and make it more expensive to employ deliver benefits remains an open question.
The new government's start has been extraordinarily rocky. This could ultimately not matter, particularly if people really do feel better off by the next election. But in the meantime, we should perhaps learn to accept anything but calm.
Matthew Lesh
IEA Public Policy Fellow & Country Manager at Freshwater Strategy
P.S. The best way to support our vital research and educational programmes is to become a paid IEA Insider. For a limited time, new paid subscribers will receive a copy of Steve Davies’ new book Apocalypse Next: The Economics of Global Catastrophic Risks) and a 15% discount.
Freebies and Scandals, IEA Podcast, Acting Director of Communications Reem Ibrahim, Executive Director Tom Clougherty, and IEA Public Policy Fellow & Country Manager at Freshwater Strategy Matthew Lesh, IEA YouTube
IEA at Conservative Party Conference
The Institute of Economic Affairs is delighted to announce a series of events at Conservative Party Conference. The IEA team will be in Birmingham from Sunday to Wednesday. We do hope you will join us!
Sunday 29th September
IEA Panel Discussion - Intergenerational Injustice: Can the Conservative Party win back the young?
13:15 - 14:15 Concerto, Hyatt Regency Hotel
To paraphrase the old adage, ‘if you’re not a socialist by 25, you have no heart, and if you’re not a conservative by 35, you have no brain’. However, polling suggests that younger generations are staying left-wing even as they age. This raises significant challenges for the Conservative Party’s electoral prospects, particularly as many struggle to buy property, earn higher incomes, or feel they have a stake in the economy. To win back younger voters, do the Conservatives need a new approach?
IEA Panel Discussion - Torch of Liberty: Can the Conservative Party rediscover its love of freedom?
15:45 - 16:45 Concerto, Hyatt Regency Hotel
The last government occasionally paid homage to individual freedom, but pursued heavy-handed policies from seeking to ban tobacco for future generations to new online speech regulations and harsh Covid lockdowns. Their approach to issues like Net Zero and the NHS prioritised central planning over individual choice or market incentives, all while imposing a record-high tax burden. This raises the question: can the Conservatives rediscover their love of freedom in opposition?
IEA Late Night Drinks Reception - ‘Free Spirits’
23:00 Sonata, Hyatt Regency Hotel
By invitation only. Apply at VIPEvents@iea.org.uk.
Monday 30th September
The Spectator - Is the Conservative party ready to talk about tax?
12:30 - Birmingham ICC : Spectator - Hall 4
Tom Clougherty, Kate Andrews, Laura Trott MP, Andrew Griffith MP, Paul Johnson
What happened to the Conservatives being the party of low taxation? Did this goal flounder under the pressure of demographic change, global protectionism and public demands for higher spending? Or can the Tories credibly claim to be the party that will make voters better off? Join The Spectator and guests as they discuss the rising tax burden – and what can be done about it. Free drinks will be served.
ThinkTent - A legacy betrayed: Can the Conservatives ever again be the party of low tax?
16:30 - Birmingham ICC : ThinkTent Marquee
Reem Ibrahim, Darwin Friend, Lord Frost, Rachel Wolf, Steve Barclay MP, Greg Smith MP
Having set the country on course for an 80 year high tax burden, have the Conservatives abandoned the idea of being the party of low tax? Did the ‘mini-budget’ do irreparable harm to the low tax movement? How can the Conservatives make the case for a low tax economy? Which taxes should the Conservatives focus their campaigning on?
Tuesday 1st October
IEA Panel Discussion - Going for Growth: The Abundance Agenda
13:15 - 14:15 Concerto, Hyatt Regency Hotel
The new government has put economic growth at the heart of its agenda, but will their top-down plan work? Do we need a free market approach instead? This panel will look at tax, regulation, housing, and infrastructure – identifying barriers to growth and propose liberalising reforms.
Young Conservatives with Blue Beyond - The Kids Aren’t Alright: How Do We Make The Economy Work For Young People?
15:00 - Birmingham ICC : Disraeli Theatre
Reem Ibrahim, Olivia Lever, Victoria Hewson, Shivani Raja MP, Sam Bidwell
Tax burden at a 40 year high, unemployment rising, growth and housing building is practically dead. Join our esteemed panel to explore how we can make the economy work for young people in a post COVID economy.
Cap X - Boomer and bust? Building a Conservatism for the young
16:30 - Birmingham ICC : CPS - Hall 4
Reem Ibrahim, Joseph Dinnage, Katie Lam MP, Ruth Marvel, Sam Bidwell
Demographic trends are dragging the UK towards a future of lower growth and higher taxation. Meanwhile, a succession of Tory governments showered cash on pensioners while neglecting younger voters. So how can we build a Britain, and a conservatism, that works for young people? And if we don't what will the consequences be?
Who to Meet, Where to Drink: Tory Conference 2024, Guido Fawkes
What to expect from the Conservative party conference,
News, Views & Upcoming Events
Pubs could be forced to shut early in new Labour nanny state blow, IEA Head of Lifestyle Economics Christopher Snowdon quoted in the Telegraph.
It's no beer Keir! As Labour reveal latest attack on booze, how Starmer's nanny state drive to 'boost health' threatens to decimate Britain's hospitality industry, IEA Head of Lifestyle Economics Christopher Snowdon has been quoted in the Daily Mail.
First Labour stubbed out smoking. Will it banish booze too?, IEA research referenced in the Telegraph.
Bank urged not to be left behind in cutting rates, IEA Economics Fellow Julian Jessop referenced in This Is Money.
“… a waste of human potential”, Acting Director of Communications Reem Ibrahim on Channel 5.
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